2148. Punctuated equilibrium.

Part of the emerging scene  might   best understood as punctuated equilibrium, a concept from Stephen Jay Gould. The idea is that a natural environment in normal times has lots of species more or less in equilibrium (achieved over a very long time) and evolves very slowly. Changed conditions either from outside (climate change, new intruders) or inside( a change in the habits and capacities of a species) put the whole environment under threat and the result is a rapid emergence of mutations as each species copes with the changes by itself changing. The result is a huge flourishing (let a hundred flowers bloom) as the environment evolves many new directions in the search for a new equilibrium, and the environment will be different in composition and slowly evolve toward a new equilibrium.

For economics and  INET   the parallel is that there will be many new products  and organizations reaching out to find success (most will fail) in a new open multi-market and bartering world: new companies, new rules, new government relations new media, and most people dispersed in search of new partners for success, often very tiny efforts of a few people to find a way, and dizzying shifts in the values of assets.

Even more than for the industrial revolution, “All that was melts in the air.”

Since most people expect either a return to the old or the emergence of one or two new possible paths, such a multitude is not expected and INET could play the role alerting the world to the possibility of plurality and open systems.

Keynes’ “Possibilities for our Grandchildren” is one possible path .  Organization by big data and algorithms into a totalitarian prison with a google like happy face on the technocracy  is another.

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